Canterbury Park Handicapping for Thursday June 26th 2014
RACE 3 50 CENT PICK 4 – 4/1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,9/3,6,7,10 ($40)
RACE 4 $1 PICK 3 - 1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,9/3,10 ($40)
RACE 4 $1 PICK 3 - 1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,9/3,10 ($40)
ANALYSIS
RACE 3
#4 INDY AWESOME (TOP
PICK) – Wow this guy has
burned some money! Purchased for $350K as a yearling and only has 3 show
finishes in 13 career starts for around $12K to show for it. He’s being dropped
in against his easiest competition of the 13 races and a tag of $20,000. He’s
certainly ran well enough in the past to beat this crowd. Brinson is 24% 2nd
off the layoff. Slightly concerned that he doesn’t always stay close enough to
the pace and one of these others could get away on the front end since this
race appears to be void of much early speed. He probably has this group
outclassed regardless of pace and I doubt we’ll see him on the tote at the 5/2
ML.
RACE 4
#8 SQUARE DANCER (TOP
PICK) – Didn’t fire like I expected in his
Canterbury debut almost a month ago. Full month off and a couple of nice
looking works and he’s ready to go out for Chambers who’s 29% 2nd
off the layoff. He’s consistently faced a tougher crowd out west and if he runs
his normal race he’ll be tough to beat.
#1 TO THE STARS – Brinson/Canchari are hitting at 32%.
Returns back to the same level as a month ago when forced wide as the 2-1 2nd
choice. Breaks again from the rail so maybe a similar type of trip is in store.
Minor chance.
#2 CORPORATE CHAPEL – He puts on
the blinkers for the first time in 21 starts and that’s always something to
consider when putting together multiple race wagers. He’s ran well enough in
the past to be a factor here and goes 3rd off the layoff. Picks up
the services of the red hot Ry Eikleberry.
#5 RUNANDYRUN – He’s an off
the pace type and had to contend with a muddy track the last couple times out,
something that probably didn’t vote well for him. Interesting one month gap on
the work tap but put up a bullet May 30th. This will be his
Canterbury debut and he’s hit the board 3 of 4 on the grass. He appears to be
in good form and has a shot at a nice price.
#7
WHY FRANK – I thought
he ran a bang up race May 30th off the short layoff finishing 2nd.
Draw a line through that last off the turf event and maybe he’s sitting on one
of his top performances. He’s probably in a bit deep here and has a very
outside if everything goes perfectly.
RACE
5
#9 ACARPIAN (TOP PICK) – The filly is 11 for 14 on the board
with 6 wins at this distance. She had to take a wide journey last out going
further over the Canterbury Turf. Should be sitting mid to back of the
pack in a race that appears to have a fair amount of early speed. Stevens
returns and is hitting at 35% with Diodoro.
#1 RECLUSIVE – She looks like
a contender and showed some good early speed when she won on the lead two back.
I never like seeing horses wheeled back in less than 3 weeks off a career top
effort. I think she’s in for a regression but have to respect 3 for 4 on the
board at the distance.
#2 HEATOFTHESTORM – She’s been going
well in the morning and makes her Canterbury debut going the distance that gave
her a win on the turf last fall. She’s ran into sloppy tracks last two times
out and ran respectable races against a bit tougher. Legitimate contender if
the pace doesn’t get too hot early.
#5 VONN NEZ – She’s
strung together several nice races in a row hitting the board in 7 of her last
8 but only has the one win. Connections are spacing the races nicely so it
wouldn’t be a surprise if she’s able to string together another nice effort.
Several of her recent races are likely good enough for the win.
RACE
6
#10 GRAZEN GOLD (TOP PICK) – Didn’t show
the early speed we’re accustomed to seeing over the muddy track off the 3 month
layoff when she made her Canterbury debut for Silva in June. I’ve always liked
early speed from the outside post in these bottom level maiden races at
Canterbury. She’s dropping in against the friendliest foes she’s faced in 9
career start and is a standout on the work tab compared to the rest of these.
#3 PURE UNION - Ran
a nice one at this level as a first time starter a
couple weeks ago. Bottom level maidens tend to not improve off those type of
efforts when returning in two weeks. I believe we’re in store for a regression
and if the connections thought improvement was in store they wouldn’t have her
up for 6,250 again. Repeat or
improvement off that first out effort might get it done. Unlikely but a chance.
#6 WHERES ALAYNA – Caught a
muddy track last out and didn’t look the same as she did in the season debut. They
drop her down to the bottom from MSW so she’s got a chance against easier.
#7 MALICIOUS MADDIE –
Ran briefly and stopped in career debut when off at 5/2 at this same 6250 level.
Purely a connection play with Brinson hitting at 31% in 14’, 2 for 6 with 2nd
out maidens, and has won 6 of 21 when teaming up with Hernandez at Canterbury.
Season Stats
| ||||
Multi Race Wagers
| ||||
Bet
|
Win
| |||
| Pick 4 | $ 425.50 | $ - | ||
| Pick 3 | $ 27.00 | $ 6.40 | ||
| DD | $ 110.00 | $ 425.50 | ||
| Season | $ 562.50 | $ 431.90 | ||
Top Pick Winners
| ||||
| 16-May | R3 #3 | $ 6.00 | ||
| R4 #4 | $ 2.10 | |||
| R7 #9 | $ 28.80 | |||
| R8 #10 | $ 9.20 | |||
| 23-May | R6 #1 | $ 6.20 | ||
| 30-May | R2 #7 | $ 3.80 | ||
| R7 #2 | $ 7.00 | |||
| R8 #7 | $ 8.80 | |||
| 5-Jun | R10 #1 | $ 3.80 | ||
| 12-Jun | R6#3 | $ 4.80 | ||
| 22-Jun | R1#4 | $ 3.20 | ||
| R3#5 | $ 3.20 | |||
| Top Pick |
Win %
|
Ave Payoff
| ||
| 12 for 47 |
25.5%
| $ 7.24 | ||
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