Canterbury Park Picks
For Thursday June 12th 2014
Wow! What a Belmont Stakes Day card. It was an exciting
day of racing and I suspect that we’ll see the stakes loaded card on Belmont
Day for years to come. A couple of thoughts on the day. I’ve been a big
California Chrome fan since very early this year. Santa Anita is one of my
favorite places ever and while a lot of players are playing Gulfstream late winter
and into the spring I stick to “The Great Race Place” almost exclusively. This
has lead me to riding the horse that comes out of the Santa Anita Derby to the
Kentucky Derby more times than not. I was disappointed that Chrome didn’t get
the crown but thought he ran very respectable in defeat and he still hadn’t
completely folded as he crossed the wire. In my opinion not having a Triple
Crown winner will draw more and more interest over the years and the longer it
goes the bigger the superstar we’ll have when the drought ends. Some say casual
fans will lose interest in seeing horses get there but never win; I believe the
opposite is true. It’s like a sports team, for example the Minnesota Vikings,
who’ve never won a Super Bowl. The longer they go without a championship the
more and more people talk about it and it becomes part of the culture of being
a fan of that team. California Chrome really seemed to draw a lot of people
into the Triple Crown which is great for horse racing; I believe they’ll be
back next time around hungrier than ever to see that superstar horse that will
stand the test of time!
Last Thursday’s Blog picks resulted in another
week of not managing to break the 14’ Pick 4 curse. The late Daily Double was
again red hot and kept the night (and year) profitable with $301.50 bet returning
a total of $425.50. I’m hoping since I was able to catch the early Canterbury
Park Pick 4 on Belmont Day it will carry over into the Blog picks and I’ll
finally nail one or better yet both this week! The top picks were a
disappointing 1 for 8 last Thursday night but unlike the picks Friday May 23rd
I had a couple run very well and miss in photo finishes. Good luck!
Race 3 - 3 * 2 * 5
R3 .50 Cent Pick 4 – 2,3,5/1,2,3,4,7,8,11/2,3,4,6,7,8,9/3 – ($73.50)
TALE BE TOLD – Diodoro sends this one to the dirt after 4 consecutive
turf tries. His best races have come over the grass but he’s been facing a bit
tougher out west. The jockey and trainer team up for 37%.
SUPER CANDY – Last out was down at Turf Paradise trying a turf
marathon stake and now cuts back to one mile on the dirt. Chambers is off to a
nice start to the 14’ meet and moves horses from turf to dirt winning at 36%.
He’ll need to be on his best and will not be able to lay too far off the pace
in a race that doesn’t have much early speed.
COWBOY
LUKE – Goes 3rd
off the layoff after matching a career best effort 19 days ago. Generally like
to see horses off at least 3 weeks off a career top and that last race was one
where he really needed to battle and finished 2nd. In the past he’s
shown a regression next out off his top efforts and I’ll take a chance we’ll
see that again today since he’ll go off at close to even money.
Race 4 – 3 * 7 * 4
MUNDY – Didn’t seem to do her best
running last summer with trainer Brinson and the Canterbury Racing Club.
Chambers claimed her back last fall and she was back to running some of her
better looking stuff over the winter in Arizona. Biggest early speed treat is breaking
from the far outside 11 post and will have to go hard early. Hoping Mundy can
settle in and be the first to pick off Standbyyourmangirl when she folds down
the stretch.
NENA’s NINER – The mare has hit the
board 15 of 22 times at this surface and distance. The jockey and trainer team
up to win at just over 25% and she drops in against slightly easier than she
was facing in Arizona this spring.
J J’s CLASSIC – I generally don’t like 11 days
between races but the race June 1st was a non effort off the turf event
on a sloppy main track. The mare prefers the grass and assuming this race stays
on the turf should be a major player here. Scherer has some success 2nd
off this type of layoff 7 for 28.
Race 5 – 4 * 7 * 6
INDY RACER – Gelding goes first time at Canterbury for Valorie Lund
who’s off to a respectable start to the Canterbury meet. The Eikleberry/Lund
combo have returned winners 29% of the time in the last year and a half. Should
be on or near the lead in a race that doesn’t appear to have much if any early
speed. He should also appreciate the class relief as he comes in from Arizona
where he’s faced tougher.
IVER WITH AN E – Showed he can stay somewhat close to the pacesetters
last out where he went 5F’s over the Canterbury turf. Previously had been the
type to lay off the pace and make a run. We’ll see what kind of running tactics
Butler and trainer Mac Robertson use but the gelding has only hit the board 1
time in 7 starts at the distance.
CORPORATE CHAPEL – Jockey and trainer have one win between the two so far
this meet but this guy has shown that he can run on the pace and should be
competitive here 2nd off the layoff. getting some class relief after
spending his time against slightly tougher
Race 6 – 3 * 6 * 2
TITIAN – I thought this was one of the clearer races I’ve
looked at so far this Canterbury meet. Diodoro sends this 6 year old out off
the October layoff. He’s looked good on the work tab for this type of horse and
Diodoro bring them back off this type of layoff at a better than average 33%
over the last 18 months. He’s in for the rock bottom tag of 4K which is a
slight concern since he’s been competitive higher. Even if he isn’t at his best,
if he runs any of his last 10 races he should be able to handle this group
easily.
SUGAR STORM – Interestingly ran a career top effort off the long
layoff making his 7 year old debut 20 days ago. If he can run back to that
career top or improve he’s a player but horses at this level almost always
regress off that type of effort and he has to carry it a ½ furlong further.
MILES HEIR – Picks up Hamilton and goes 2nd off the layoff. He’ll need
to be at his absolute best to have a shot.
Race 7 - 2 * 8 * 1
R7 50 Cent Pick 4 – 2,8/1,8,9/4,9/7,9,10 ($18)
GELDAUTOMAT – Diodoro has a great opportunity to pick up back to
back winners with Geldautomat. Last race was his career best by far. Top effort
came out of nowhere in a bottom level maiden event. Unlikely he repeats or
improves off that last effort but even if he regresses is he’s proably still
good enough to win here. He does go first time against winners and stretches
out a ½ furlong. 3+ weeks off since that top effort so he should be ready to
run again. The price will be short and he’s the likely winner but there are
logically reason to play others as well.
DOUBLE ZAP – Ran very well the first two starts of the year in
Chicago against MSW’s and won going 6 furlongs. He returned with and off effort
over the Arlington synthetic and then fought and faded in a one mile allowance
at canterbury opening weekend. Maybe the two off efforts has him ready to run
another big one. Any improvement off his top effort May 30th would
put him in serious contention here.
GENUINE COWBOY – Fresh runner that’s got a couple nice works in on the Canterbury
tab. McFarlane brings them to races off this type of layoff and wins 25% with a
good sample size. This guy’s been consistent but will need to break through with
an improved effort to win here.
Race 8 – 1 * 9 * 8
KATI CAN – Showed early speed for Padilla in her season debut and
held on for 3rd in a MSW. Didn’t do much running 12 days ago at the
same level and now returns against claimers. Hoping she can bounce back in this
spot 3rd off the layoff and get a solid trip on the pace with the
inside post position.
CORPORATE COMET – Rhone and Butler are both off to an uncharacteristic
start to the 14’ meet with both being in a bit of a funk. The gal is working as
good as any of them in here but Rhone hasn’t been great off the winter layoffs.
A little class relief from a couple of
the 13’ races where she was able to hit the board for 2nd. Concerned
she’ll need a race.
BABY PICKLES – Also dropping from MSW to state bred maiden claimers.
Was a brief factor in the season debut and then folded. Hoping for improvement
2nd off the layoff. A couple of her best efforts last summer puts
here right in the mix here. Jockey and trainer are both winless this Canterbury
meet.
Race 9 - 4 * 9 * 2
R9 $3 Daily Double 4,9/7,9,10 ($18)
R9 $2 Daily Double 4/9 ($2)
SCHILLERTHEKILLER – Hasn’t been quite the same since being claimed
from Midwest Thoroughbreds around this time last year. He wasn’t right into
last fall before heading to the sidelines. I really like what I’m seeing in the
mornings for this type of horse so maybe he just needed a break and is ready to
fire on the return.
INCISIVE – This guy’s on a bit of a zig zag pattern over the
course of the last several races. There’s speed in here for him to sit just off
the pace. He’s coming back after a nice 4 week layoff and should be a player.
SWEET TIGGER – He’s been running very consistently and will need a slight
improvement to win here.
Race 10 - 7 * 9 * 10
MALICIOUS MADDIE – Brinson drops her in
as a first time starter for half the purchase price. Brinson has won 2 of 8
with first time starters and she’s working well enough to be a factor here.
PURE UNION – Working well for Biehler
who’s 0-15 with first time starters. I would have made her my top pick but will
she lands in the place spot since the trainer is 0 for his last 15 with first
timers.
CLASSS OF TWENTYTNE – Back to back OK efforts for
this level, has shown speed and then folded in the past so the extra ½ furlong
won’t do her any favors.
Season Stats
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Multi Race Wagers
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Bet
|
Win
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| Pick 4 | $ 231.50 | $ - | ||
| DD | $ 70.00 | $ 425.50 | ||
| Season | $ 301.50 | $ 425.50 | ||
Top Pick Winners
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| 16-May | R3 #3 | $ 6.00 | ||
| R4 #4 | $ 2.10 | |||
| R7 #9 | $ 28.80 | |||
| R8 #10 | $ 9.20 | |||
| 23-May | R6 #1 | $ 6.20 | ||
| 30-May | R2 #7 | $ 3.80 | ||
| R7 #2 | $ 7.00 | |||
| R8 #7 | $ 8.80 | |||
| 5-Jun | R10 #1 | $ 3.80 | ||
| Picks | Win % |
Ave Payoff
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||
| 9 for 32 | 28.1% | $ 8.41 | ||
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