Canterbury Park Picks
For
Thursday June 5th 2014
I couldn’t manage to burst the Pick
4 bubble last Friday night going 3 of 4 both early and late but did catch 3 of
8 top pick winners and 5 of 8 top picks finishing no worse than 2nd. The Friday
night Pick 4’s have been massive at Canterbury Park so far this meet. On Friday
a profitable evening disappeared when Shangrila Bar folded at the top of the
stretch in the last knocking out the Pick 4 and both Daily Doubles. Hopefully I
can catch a few of these nice pick 4’s as I move my weekly Blog picks to
Thursday night, buck night, for the remainder of the season. This will allow
more handicapping time, hopefully result in more winners, and more dollars in
the pocket! I’m excited for an excellent weekend of racing and expect the
atmosphere at Canterbury Park on Saturday to match any I’ve experienced at the
home track if the weather corporates. I’ll be cheering on California Chrome and
his attempt to run into racing immortality in the final leg of the Triple
Crown. Good Luck!
Race
3 2 * 1 * 4
R3
50 Cent P4 - 1,2/2,3,4,6,7,9,10/1,9/4,5,7 ($42)
GREAT RIVER SKIER – Five of these six locals faced
each other 13 days ago when all of them were coming off the bench. They all
come back here minus the winner, the tag drops to 10K, they cutback to 5.5F,
and one new face, Supremo Struckgold, joins the party. Top pick couldn’t quit
keep on as the favorite in the season debut. He’ll once again be favored
sitting just off the lead and will be the one they’ll have to chase down the
stretch.
SUPREMO STRUCKGOLD – The only newcomer to this 6-pack
returning off the long layoff. Scherer has him working well for the return and
he does occasionally win off this type of layoff. The jockey has started the
meet an ice cold 0 for 10. Gelding ran a respectable race near the lead off the
same type of layoff last summer going 6F and folded late; maybe returning at
5.5F is just what he needs.
KNOW NO SOMERSET – Didn’t break against this group
last out which didn’t give Eikleberry much of a chance. The jockey is off to a
fantastic start to the 14’ meet however he’s 0 for his last 26 when teaming
with Donlin.
Race
4 10 * 7 * 4
SECRET STORY – This first timer will have the
outside post working against her but goes out for a jockey and trainer that
couldn’t be much hotter to start the 14’ meet. The KY Bred put up a nice 5F
bullet Saturday and is as likely as any of the other first time turfers to take
to the sod.
SASSY PRANCE – Connections must have liked what
they saw first time off the bench opening weekend as they move from state
restricted maidens to open foes. She’s in against much tougher here than her
season debut but did close impressively for 2nd going 5.5F and like
the top pick it’s logical that the grass is actually the preferred surface.
THE GRANS – Like last year, returns to
Canterbury still searching for that maiden victory. Has hit the board 14 of 26
for 70K so she doesn’t always disappoint and is collecting some checks. Gal has
tried a bit of everything, even a spin down the hill at Santa Anita. She’s
faced tougher and this looks like a logical opportunity for the win but I’ve
made that mistake before.
Race
5 1 * 9 * 3
MOUNT EAGLE – Debuted at Indiana Downs as a two
year old on the turf and didn’t run poorly and if he can carry that effort
7.5F’s moving back to the grass after several dirt tries he should be the
winner here.
AMERICAN BEAUTY – This guy hasn’t done much to
impress in the mornings over the Keenland strip. These are most likely the
friendliest foes he’s seen and I do like that he was a little closer up last
time out before fading. 3rd off the layoff for a trainer that’s
doing well going from 2 turns to 1 and a red hot jockey to boot.
GOLD RAJ – He was going well enough last
year to be competitive here. Going first off the claim for the Ulwelling’s
w/conditioner Biehler who hits at 10% off the claim. Maybe the handler and a
return to the turf will do it.
Race
6 7 * 5 * 4
PAPA SMITTY – Career top 3 back and a couple non
efforts so I suspect he’s ready for another top effort. Only 3 so the
significant tag drop is a bit alarming but possible Brinson is looking to take
the claim, purse, and move on. The cutback to 5.5F shouldn’t hurt this
speedster if he’s on his game.
TALK THE WALK – Didn’t have the greatest of trips
as the favorite at this level in his Canterbury debut. Trainer hasn’t sent many
but is 3 for 5 at Canterbury. I doubt the May 23rd effort took much
out of him since he’s accustomed to doing more.
ALUMNI – Ran one of his career efforts
first time over the Canterbury surface last out and don’t love the return in 13
days. Can’t fault the fact he’s 6 for 10 hitting the board at the distance and
has the right to improve 2nd off the layoff if that last effort
didn’t take too much out of him. Padillia’s 0 for 17 with 2nd out
off this type of break though.
Race
7 5 * 6 * 7
50
Cent P4 - 2,3,5,6,7/2,6,7,8,11/1,6/1 ($25)
HOLD THE WIRE – First timer for Diodoro who’s off
to a good start this meet. Son of Tiznow went at the KEE auction for $260K at 2
years old and apparently had some setbacks as he’s just now hitting the track
at 4. Diodoro wins at an excellent 21% clip with first timers and the colt has
been working steadily since mid-April for the debut.
ATOMIC – Failed at odds on going 5.5f 13
days ago, didn’t get an ideal trip but now is stretching out to 6F and faces
what appears to be a tougher crew.
TRUE TRUFFLE – Exits a key 2nd place
finish where the 1st and 3rd place horses both returned
to win next out. Has a nice 40 day break
off the debut but the conditioner is an ugly 0 for 19 off that type of break.
Race
8 7 * 8 * 11
NANTUCKET SOUND - Ulwellings and Scherer claimed
this one first out from Plesa at Gulfsteam Park where he didn’t do much in his
debut over the turf course. The gelding looks good on the tab for the return
and picks up the services of the red hot Eddie Martin Jr.
MALIBU DEPUTY – Debuted by running 2nd
at odds on down at Turf Paradise for Diodoro. Any improvement off the debut
effort is likely enough to get it done here.
BET YOUR SOCKS – 3 place finishes in 6 attempts
but those were all against state breds. Finds himself in a bit deeper with
non-state restricted here. Could improve 3rd off the layoff and will
need another career top effort to compete for the win here.
Race
9 1 * 6 * 4
$5
DD - 1,4,6/1 ($15)
$10
DD - 1/1 ($10)
WOODLANDSWAY – Diodoro and Carreno hit at a 26%
clip from a large sample size. Filly comes in after making her home at the
great race place for several months where she’s faced tougher but mostly on the
Santa Anita Turf course. She has just one try on the dirt and apparently
they’re passing up turf opportunities to give the dirt another go. Diodoro hits
at 21% with the turf to dirt move.
MNMSSWEEPINBEAUTY – Wired the field last out at
Prairie Meadows and Tracey hits with 20% return winners. One the lead type in a
race that has other early speed.
TALK ABOUT ME – She’ll appreciate them cooking
early and was still running on last out which was first off the layoff going
5.5F so maybe a hot pace and the added 1/2 furlong will be exactly what she
needs.
Race
10 1 * 3 * 6
TERICE – Looks the one to beat here. I
doubt the 3-1 ML will hold as nearly every race in her last 10 would be good
enough to win here. Has been as consistent as they come over the last 10 months
and is 9 for 17 in the money at this distance with most being against a bit
tougher.
BERTSLITTLESISTER – Goes out for the Canterbury
owners and is capable if she can improve off the last two efforts. Last summer
most of her good stuff was shown on the grass but a couple of her best dirt
efforts would put her in contention here.
WILDIE – She was off a bit slow last out
against the top choice, maybe with a better break and she can stay in touch and
she has another ½ furlong to work with this time around.
Season Stats
|
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Top Pick Winners
|
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| 16-May | R3 #3 | $ 6.00 | ||
| R4 #4 | $ 2.10 | |||
| R7 #9 | $ 28.80 | |||
| R8 #10 | $ 9.20 | |||
| 23-May | R6 #1 | $ 6.20 | ||
| 30-May | R2 #7 | $ 3.80 | ||
| R7 #2 | $ 7.00 | |||
| R8 #7 | $ 8.80 | |||
| Picks | Win % | Ave Payoff | ||
| 8 for 24 | 33.3% | $ 8.99 | ||
Multi Race Wagers
|
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| Bet | Win | |||
| Pick 4 | $ 164.50 | $ - | ||
| DD | $ 45.00 | $ 270.00 | ||
| Season | $ 209.50 | $ 270.00 | ||
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