Canterbury Park Handicapping
for Thursday JULY 3RD 2014
Another Thursday night another Blog Picks Pick 4 missed
last week. I’ve hit a couple Canterbury Pick 4’s but I’m still winless in this
Blog; maybe time to rename it the “Blah Picks”... On the bright side I did nail
2 of 4 top pick winners last Thursday and I’ll see if I can figure out a four
race sequence this week that actually lands a pick 4. Excellent Thursday night
card at Canterbury this week with two wide open MN Bred Stakes on the turf. It
will be a large and festive crowd for the always entertaining Canterbury Park
fireworks show after the races. They’ll start booming around 10PM. A time
crunch this week has me keeping the analysis short and sweet but it looks like
it might be a good night to bet Robertino Diodoro. I’m listing 6 top pick
winners this week and will be happy if I get 2 or more since 3 of the 6 top
picks are double digits in the morning. Have a safe and happy 4th of
July weekend; good luck!
RACE
5 50 CENT PICK 4 PLAY – 5,6/4,5/1,3,4,5,8,9,10/2,3,6,7,9 ($70)
ANALYSIS
RACE
5:
#5 CASTLETOWN (TOP PICK) – I didn’t figure I’d ever be leaving Heliskier off a
pick 4 ticket at Canterbury but I think this is a very tough spot against non
MN breds and I’m not exactly sure the surface and distance is ideal. If he
beats me he beats me but I’m going to use Castletown as my top pick and
sprinkle in LAV MANO NERA. Castletown ran a nice race memorial weekend and a
repeat of that effort likely makes him the winner here. I think the post position
is much more ideal this time and form cycle would suggest he’s sitting on one
of his best efforts. Steven’s and
Diodoro team up for 33% and Diodoro is leading the meet with 18 winners.
RACE
6
#4 TRANZIP (TOP PICK) – KYLEE’S STAR looks very tough
here but I’ll take a chance against the less than even money chalk that she
sits too far off the pace and Tranzip can maybe continue on from just off the
pace on the class drop from MSW’s. Tranzip goes 3rd off the
layoff and has nicely spaced races. Showed some early foot last out before
folding up.
RACE 7
WIDE OPEN
RACE
8
#3 JOAN STONE (TOP PICK) – Generally don’t like to take horses
first out after the 10 month layoff, it’s almost a rule of thumb, but willing
to give it a try here in a field of cupcakes. They bring Joan Stone back off
the layoff to face MCL 10K’s after 3 straight attempts at MSW money last
summer. It’s the type of races that won at the break and the likely winner will
be on or near the early lead. She looks just as fast as any on the work tab and
maybe those blinkers will help her get involved earlier than she did last
summer. Wide open race with a couple very vulnerable favorites.
RACE
9 $1 PICK 3 PLAY – 3,7,8,9,11,12/1,3,7,9,10/8 ($30)
RACE 9
#3 GO GO JILL (TOP PICK) – Very very
tough MN Bred stakes on the Canterbury Turf. You could go one of several ways
in here. I liked how Go Go Jill ran first off the 7 month layoff in May. Career
top effort and love that she got just over a month off after that so I don’t
see any reason she can’t improve. Lori Keith has been a block of ice but she
does seem to get it done in big spots on the Canterbury grass. I think there’s
some pace in here and she could loom dangerous from just off the pace.
RACE 10
#10 COMMAND THE LAND (TOP
PICK) – Another
great MN Bred race this time the guys. Command the Land feels like an
interesting play for Tammy Domenosky who’s had some success at Canterbury. I
figure to see improvement on the surface switch and shouldn’t mind the added
ground. He should be able to stalk the early lead in a race that figures to have
a fair pace. Red hot Eikeleberry stays onboard after bringing him to the winner
circle opening weekend. A bit of a hunch but the price will be very square.
RACE 11
#8 TOUGH RIPPLES (TOP PICK) -
Season Stats
|
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Multi Race Wagers
|
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Bet
|
Win
|
|||
| Pick 4 | $ 445.50 | $ - | ||
| Pick 3 | $ 67.00 | $ 6.40 | ||
| DD | $ 110.00 | $ 425.50 | ||
| Season | $ 622.50 | $ 431.90 | ||
Top Pick Winners
|
||||
| 16-May | R3 #3 | $ 6.00 | ||
| R4 #4 | $ 2.10 | |||
| R7 #9 | $ 28.80 | |||
| R8 #10 | $ 9.20 | |||
| 23-May | R6 #1 | $ 6.20 | ||
| 30-May | R2 #7 | $ 3.80 | ||
| R7 #2 | $ 7.00 | |||
| R8 #7 | $ 8.80 | |||
| 5-Jun | R10 #1 | $ 3.80 | ||
| 12-Jun | R6#3 | $ 4.80 | ||
| 22-Jun | R1#4 | $ 3.20 | ||
| R3#5 | $ 3.20 | |||
| 26-Jun | R3 #4 | $ 3.40 | ||
| R6 #10 |
$ 7.20
|
|||
| Picks | Win % | Ave Payoff | ||
| 14 for 49 | 28.6% | $ 6.96 | ||
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