Early Pick4 Handicapping at Canterbury Park for Thursday June 26th

Canterbury Park Handicapping for Thursday June 26^th 2014

 

 

 After a couple ice cold weeks, this past Sunday being one of the coldest in recent memory, it’s time to switch it up a tad and attempt to get out of this Pick 4 funk. For Thursday night I’m going to focus all of my attention on the early Pick 4 races 3 thru 6 and try to yield a winning Pick 4. It’s been tough to pick up on a track bias so far this meet. I suppose that’s due in large part to the inconsistent weather and monsoon like rains the last couple of weeks. We’ve finally strung a few days together without any major precipitation so maybe the track will start looking more like the Canterbury track I’m accustomed to. After back to back cold weeks the Blog Picks are running a deficit for the first time this year. It’s time to get back in the black on Buck Night at Canterbury Park. Good Luck!

RACE 3 50 CENT PICK 4 – 4/1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,9/3,6,7,10 ($40)
RACE 4 $1 PICK 3 - 1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,9/3,10 ($40)

ANALYSIS

RACE 3                 

#4 INDY AWESOME (TOP PICK) – Wow this guy has burned some money! Purchased for $350K as a yearling and only has 3 show finishes in 13 career starts for around $12K to show for it. He’s being dropped in against his easiest competition of the 13 races and a tag of $20,000. He’s certainly ran well enough in the past to beat this crowd. Brinson is 24% 2^nd off the layoff. Slightly concerned that he doesn’t always stay close enough to the pace and one of these others could get away on the front end since this race appears to be void of much early speed. He probably has this group outclassed regardless of pace and I doubt we’ll see him on the tote at the 5/2 ML.

#6 BLUE BOMBER – This gelding drops in against his easiest completion in 3 career starts for Diodoro who’s winning 25% in 14’ and is over 20% 2^nd off the layoff. I think there’s a chance he finds himself on a comfortable early lead. In 3 career starts he’s faced several horses that have gone on to win next out and I give him a slight chance here if he isn’t pestered too much early.

RACE 4

#8 SQUARE DANCER (TOP PICK) – Didn’t fire like I expected in his Canterbury debut almost a month ago. Full month off and a couple of nice looking works and he’s ready to go out for Chambers who’s 29% 2^nd off the layoff. He’s consistently faced a tougher crowd out west and if he runs his normal race he’ll be tough to beat.

#1 TO THE STARS – Brinson/Canchari are hitting at 32%. Returns back to the same level as a month ago when forced wide as the 2-1 2^nd choice. Breaks again from the rail so maybe a similar type of trip is in store. Minor chance.  

#2 CORPORATE CHAPEL – He puts on the blinkers for the first time in 21 starts and that’s always something to consider when putting together multiple race wagers. He’s ran well enough in the past to be a factor here and goes 3^rd off the layoff. Picks up the services of the red hot Ry Eikleberry.

#5 RUNANDYRUN – He’s an off the pace type and had to contend with a muddy track the last couple times out, something that probably didn’t vote well for him. Interesting one month gap on the work tap but put up a bullet May 30^th. This will be his Canterbury debut and he’s hit the board 3 of 4 on the grass. He appears to be in good form and has a shot at a nice price.

 #7 WHY FRANK – I thought he ran a bang up race May 30^th off the short layoff finishing 2nd. Draw a line through that last off the turf event and maybe he’s sitting on one of his top performances. He’s probably in a bit deep here and has a very outside if everything goes perfectly.

RACE 5  

#9 ACARPIAN (TOP PICK) – The filly is 11 for 14 on the board with 6 wins at this distance. She had to take a wide journey last out going further over the Canterbury Turf.  Should be sitting mid to back of the pack in a race that appears to have a fair amount of early speed. Stevens returns and is hitting at 35% with Diodoro.

#1 RECLUSIVE – She looks like a contender and showed some good early speed when she won on the lead two back. I never like seeing horses wheeled back in less than 3 weeks off a career top effort. I think she’s in for a regression but have to respect 3 for 4 on the board at the distance.

#2 HEATOFTHESTORM – She’s been going well in the morning and makes her Canterbury debut going the distance that gave her a win on the turf last fall. She’s ran into sloppy tracks last two times out and ran respectable races against a bit tougher. Legitimate contender if the pace doesn’t get too hot early.

#5 VONN NEZ – She’s strung together several nice races in a row hitting the board in 7 of her last 8 but only has the one win. Connections are spacing the races nicely so it wouldn’t be a surprise if she’s able to string together another nice effort. Several of her recent races are likely good enough for the win.

RACE 6      

#10 GRAZEN GOLD (TOP PICK) – Didn’t show the early speed we’re accustomed to seeing over the muddy track off the 3 month layoff when she made her Canterbury debut for Silva in June. I’ve always liked early speed from the outside post in these bottom level maiden races at Canterbury. She’s dropping in against the friendliest foes she’s faced in 9 career start and is a standout on the work tab compared to the rest of these.

#3 PURE UNION - Ran a nice one at this level as a first time starter a couple weeks ago. Bottom level maidens tend to not improve off those type of efforts when returning in two weeks. I believe we’re in store for a regression and if the connections thought improvement was in store they wouldn’t have her up for 6,250 again.  Repeat or improvement off that first out effort might get it done. Unlikely but a chance.

#6 WHERES ALAYNA – Caught a muddy track last out and didn’t look the same as she did in the season debut. They drop her down to the bottom from MSW so she’s got a chance against easier.

#7 MALICIOUS MADDIE – Ran briefly and stopped in career debut when off at 5/2 at this same 6250 level. Purely a connection play with Brinson hitting at 31% in 14’, 2 for 6 with 2^nd out maidens, and has won 6 of 21 when teaming up with Hernandez at Canterbury.

	Season Stats
	Multi Race Wagers
		Bet	Win
	Pick 4	$          425.50	$                  -
	Pick 3	$            27.00	$             6.40
	DD	$          110.00	$        425.50
	Season	$          562.50	$        431.90
	Top Pick Winners
	16-May	R3 #3	$             6.00
		R4 #4	$             2.10
		R7 #9	$           28.80
		R8 #10	$             9.20
	23-May	R6 #1	$             6.20
	30-May	R2 #7	$             3.80
		R7 #2	$             7.00
		R8 #7	$             8.80
	5-Jun	R10 #1	$             3.80
	12-Jun	R6#3	$             4.80
	22-Jun	R1#4	$             3.20
		R3#5	$             3.20
	Top Pick	Win %	Ave Payoff
	12 for 47	25.5%	$             7.24

Canterbury Picks for Sunday June 22nd

Canterbury Park Selections for Sunday June 22nd

 

 Monsoon like rain took the Thursday night blog picks out of commission when the card was canceled. hoping the rain holds off all weekend and we can be back on the turf sunday as my favorite horse on the canterbury backside (part owner) Bourbonology goes in the 9^th. after 288 days of rest and relaxation we are ready to see her back in action. assuming that race stays on the turf ill take her 2^rd (in the picks) trying not to be a complete homer.  she probably needs a race or two before she’ll be at her best off that type of layoff but i’ll be cheering her on for the win. it’s time to land some pick 4’s and turn what’s currently a slightly profitable meet into a “very” profitable meet.  come say hi to @arithedog and little E in the paddock prior to the 9^th. good luck!

Race 1 (QH) – 4 * 6 * 1   

R1 $1 Pick 3 – 1,4,6/3,4,5/2,3,5 ($27)

Race 2 (QH) – 4 * 3 * 5

Race 3 (QH) – 5 * 2 * 3

Race 4 – 1 * 2 * 5                          

R4 .50 Cent Pick 4 – 2,3,4,5/ALL/3,8/2,7 ($56)

TACTICAL ROCKET – You have to break well in these 3.5F races or really be a Special horse if you miss the break and win. While I think my 2^nd and 3^rd place picks have more potential tactical rocket has at least proven he can break and has run a couple nice races in Arizona. He’s cutting back to 3.5F from 5 and 4.5 so he’s got the stamina.   

CHARLIE AGAIN – 20K Keeland purchase goes out for Robertson who’s 22% first out in this type of race. The colt has shown some speed in the morning throwing up a 36 2/5^th 3F work, impressive for a 2 year old over the Canterbury strip. If this colt makes the break it might be all over Charlie.

SUBTLE INDIAN – I’ve become a big fan of the Diodoro stable both out west and now at Canterbury. Diodoro also has some success with first time starters hitting at 21%. Son of Indian Charlie looks good on the tab.

Race 5 – 7 * 2 * 5

Tough to get an opinion going in this race. I’ll take a chance that RYAN’S MIRACLE was just off her game last out and ready to run in this spot. She’s proved that at times she’s good enough to beat this group and she picks up Eikleberry who’s been hot. Top pick 7; all button in the pick 4. There isn’t one horse in this field that would shock me for the win.   

Race 6 – 3 * 8 * 5       

R6 $1 Pick 3 - ALL/2,7/8 ($16)

NORTHERN CHAMP – Ran ok in the mud in his Canterbury debut and returns two week later to face similar competition and cuts back a ½ furlong. Robertson is taking the blinkers off and he’s won 40% with that move in the past. Northern Champs best running has been on the turf. Connections interestingly pass up today 9^th race on the sod where (on paper) she would seem to fit nicely even against non-state breds. 

STORMY BULL – Showed early speed and faded in the mud in the same race as the top pick last out. Ran a few nice ones for this type of horse at this distance last summer. Maybe the cutback to 5.5 furlongs and a fast main track is all he needs.   

SONNY MONEY – Tried a tougher group of MN bred’s in season debut and drops in with claimers 2^nd off the layoff. Ordaz didn’t give him much of a trip in the season debut. Maybe with an improved trip, fast main track, and 2^nd off the layoff he’ll be good enough here.

Race 7 – 2 * 5 * 7                                             

DAKOTA MAC – Ran right off the page opening weekend with a career top speed figure. Love that they didn’t wheel him back in 2 or 3 weeks instead got 36 days off which is what horses need after running huge efforts. He should be ready to run another nice one for the Canchari/Robertson duo who’s hitting over 30% together at Canterbury.

PHISH FAN – Moved to the Arlington turf last out for a tough group of 50k claimers and didn’t run to his potential. I expect him to be sitting on one of his better efforts given the nice breaks between races and the non-effort last out on the turf. This conditioner has won 4 of 18 going from turf to dirt.

ROCKIN HOME – Tried a couple of stakes but now moves in with some optional claimers. His numbers looks better on the sheets than they do in the racing form. Should be well positioned here and wheeling and dealing on the lead. Maybe that last out on the turf built in a little extra staying power and he’ll be able to hold on. tough spot but i wouldn’t be shocked if rockin home pulled a minor upset especially if the track is playing kind to his 21n3 opening quarter speed.

Race 8 – 8 * 10 * 4 

R8 50 Cent Pick 4 – 4,8,10/1,3,4,5,9,12/2,6/4,5 ($36)                                                                            

ITSABOUTJAZZ– debuted well a couple weeks ago for a trainer that hits 24% with second out maidens. Moves from 3.5f to 5 here. Giving him the nod due to having the race over the two first timers drawn to his outside.

PERFECT MAJESTIC – I’m hoping this 100k purchase for Al & Bill Ulwelling runs well. I’m sure he has some talent and hasn’t looked bad in the morning but Biehler is 0 for 16 with first time starters

PERMIT TO CARRY – Another good looking first timer for Silva. Interesting that Canchari passes up calypso run for regular trainer mac Robertson and rides this one for Silva instead. Calypso run also appears to have some talent but although it’s hard to say what’s always going on with these jockey decisions Canchari going for Silva has me interested. 

Race 9 – 5 * 1 * 3 (on the turf selections)

LIAR LIAR LIAR – we’ll see if Diodoro can get two in a row here with liar liar liar. His go to rider joins and they hit 27% together. One win but has hit the board 8 of 14 in her career and is 5 for 8 on the board at the distance. If you look at form cycles, on paper, she looks to be sitting on one of her top efforts which will be more than enough to get it done against this group.

BOURBONOLGY – a little bit of a homer selection as part owner. Bourbonology does have the lowest last out number on the form rating the problem is that was 288 days ago. Race is lacking a lot of pace but maybe the jocks will recognize that and a couple will go for it early. She probably needs or two before at her best but I’ll be cheering for a big late run and catching them all at the wire.

A THOUSAND TALENTS – taking a price shot here. Draw a line through that last effort in the off the turf event. Wasn’t beaten by much by waves of light may 23’rd and if she draws in might be the favorite in here. Stands to improve and maybe be in the mix at a nice price if this says on the turf. I’d take waves of light over a thousand talents if waves draws in.

Race 10 – 6 * 2 * 4  

R10 $5 DAILY DOUBLE – 2,6/4 ($10)

R10 $2 daily double – 2,4,6,7,10/4 ($10)                                                          

PRAIRIE CRUSADER – Drops in with claimers after being over matched in the season debut with MSW’s. I expect Vic Hanson to have a bit more speed worked into this guy and giving him a chance to fire at a big price.

A P THE MVP – Drops to MCL here after a couple nice efforts. He’s the one to beat; any improvement off his previous two and he’ll dispatch this group.

TWO CHANCES – This ones actually increasing the claiming price but has had almost a full month off the career top in May. Improvement off that effort and he’s right in the mix here. Shepherd is in the irons who’s actually been sneaky good so far this meet.

Race 11 – 4 * 5 * 2 (on the turf selections)                      

KISSMEIMDANISH – Ran a very nice one against tougher in her Canterbury season debut. Returned last out and apparently didn’t like the footing as the favorite in an off the turf event. 3^rd off the layoff with a non-effort last out puts her on a big effort if this stays on the grass. Eikleberry and Lund are hot hitting at 27%. I think this is a big time play if by chance you get the 7/2 morning line.

THRICE NICE – Season debut at Canterbury was rained off the turf. She did close well off the turf but speed figure wise it was still a cut below her best. Should see improvement with the move to turf.

HARLAN’S SWEETIE– The other Lund runner heads back to the turf after a spin over the Canterbury dirt. Best running has come on the grass where she’s 8 for 14 in the money.

 

	Season Stats
	Multi Race Wagers
		Bet	Win
	Pick 4	$          333.50	$                          -
	Pick 3	$                   -	$                          -
	DD	$            90.00	$                 425.50
	Season	$          423.50	$                 425.50
	Top Pick Winners
	16-May	R3 #3	$                      6.00
		R4 #4	$                      2.10
		R7 #9	$                   28.80
		R8 #10	$                      9.20
	23-May	R6 #1	$                      6.20
	30-May	R2 #7	$                      3.80
		R7 #2	$                      7.00
		R8 #7	$                      8.80
	5-Jun	R10 #1	$                      3.80
	12-Jun	R6#3	$                      4.80
	Picks	Win %	Ave Payoff
	10 for 36	27.8%	$                      8.05