Canterbury Park Handicapping for Thursday July 10th 2014
It was a festive crowd at Canterbury Park last Thursday
night for some solid racing and the fireworks spectacular. The Blog picks finally
yielded a profitable pick 4 and just missed a boatload when Tahkodha Red missed
by a neck in the 8th and final leg of the early pick 4 Thursday
night. The winner Sophie’s Cupcake still landed a profitable ticket and I’ll try to turn
that into a winning streak by playing only the late pick 4 tomorrow night. The pick
3 last week was alive to Tough Ripples in the 11th who went off at
3/2 and folded up late eliminating my $320 will pay. One of those just miss type of nights...
The average $2 win payout at Canterbury so far this
year has been a healthy $11.41. Even after that monster win payout on Saturday, opening
weekend surprisingly had the highest average payout so far this meet. Post time
favorites are 106 for 277 hitting at a 38.3% clip so there's no reason to fear the favorites. The key to landing one of these monster pick 4’s is spreading
in a leg or two and finding a race where you can formulate a strong opinion on
a horse or two. I couldn’t formulate a real strong opinion in any of the early
pick 4 races so it’s back to “the late one”, Buck Night, at Canterbury Park.
Good Luck.
RACE
7 50 CENT PICK 4 PLAY – 1/2,3,5,6,9/1,7,8,9,10/ALL ($87.50)
ANALYSIS
RACE 7
#1 LUCKY EIGHT (TOP PICK) –
If you’ve been following the Blog Picks you
probably realize I’m a pretty big Robertino Diodoro fan. Lucky Eight is plummeting
in class. MWS down to a very bottom level MCL is the biggest drop in racing.
All 7 of her starts have been against much tougher; she generally shows some
early speed before folding up but even if she’s folds she’s been running twice
as fast as anything in here. She’ll be an extremely short price and is as close
to a lock as you get in this type of race. This big class drop can always be concerning
but I’m guessing their comfortable picking up a check and letting her go.
RACE
8
#3 NORTHERN CHAMP (TOP
PICK) – Chanchari jumps off Northern Champ and onto #2 Orange
Thunder which may indicate Northern Champ is overmatched. He ran nicely on the
slop off a several month layoff and he hasn't liked the slop all that much in the past. Came back
to run a decent 3rd at 5.5 furlongs. For a horse that’s done some
routing I think he’ll appreciate the extra ½ furlong. He hasn’t been great but has
been damn consistent. Should be sitting on an improved effort third off the layoff, and
also forwardly placed by the apprentice jockey who’s getting a 5lb break
on most of these.
#2 ORANGE THUNDER – Goes for the
hot Robertson/Canchari duo. I’m not sure if the sloppy effort two back was all
that good and he’s really only ran well enough once, which was last august, to
handle this crew but dangerous.
#5 STORMY LEDGER – As the season
wears on sometimes a horse like Stormy Ledger with fresh legs going against a
group that’s already raced 2-3 times at Canterbury can pull the upset. That's about all there is to like but will be a massive price.
#6 SONNY MONEY – Looking for
another improved effort 3rd off the long layoff. Needs to run faster
but a slight improvement will put him in the mix.
#9 SAM’S SILVER STAR – He’s never
went 6F’s and generally likes to come from off the pace. It’s not always where
you want to be on this track and this race doesn’t have a ton of speed signed
on. He’s a player but looking for him to come up a bit short.
RACE 9
#7 SHANGRILA BAR (TOP
PICK) – Ran a beautiful race last out with MSW's and will face winners
for the first time. Love that he got almost a full month off after the big
effort as opposed to R U Joshin Me and Great River Skier, who I’m going to pass
on, as they wheel back in just 12 days off their inflated sloppy track efforts. Dean
Butler’s heating up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat or improvement off that last effort.
#1 LOOKING AT LARRY – Player 2nd
off the layoff for leading jockey Eikleberry. There’s plenty of pace in here
for his come from slightly off the pace running style.
#8 TUFF GRIT – One paper
this one doesn’t seem to fit but they certainly could have found an easier
spot. Probably throwing money away but I’m too curious to leave him off the
ticket.
#9 & #10 – Both have
fresh legs. It’s rare that I give Olesiak a shot but his one win was on He’s a
Preacher. Outside shot players that will be a big price.
RACE 10
#2 WILD LUNA (TOP PICK) – I don’t like that’s she’s coming back in 11
days but it wasn’t one of her top efforts and she probably didn’t like the
muddy track. Hoping that she can run one of her closer to the pace races and
track the clear early speed to her inside. She should be there to pounce when Sunny
Silver comes apart. I could see this one unfolding one of several ways and will
use the ALL
button in the pick 4.
Season Stats
|
||||
Multi Race Wagers
|
||||
Bet
|
Win
| |||
| Pick 4 | $ 515.50 | $ 104.00 | ||
| Pick 3 | $ 97.00 | $ 6.40 | ||
| DD | $ 110.00 | $ 425.50 | ||
| Season | $ 722.50 | $ 535.90 | ||
Top Pick Winners
|
||||
16-May
|
R3 #3
|
$ 6.00
| ||
R4 #4
|
$ 2.10
| |||
R7 #9
|
$ 28.80
| |||
R8 #10
|
$ 9.20
| |||
23-May
|
R6 #1
|
$ 6.20
| ||
30-May
|
R2 #7
|
$ 3.80
| ||
R7 #2
|
$ 7.00
| |||
R8 #7
|
$ 8.80
| |||
5-Jun
|
R10 #1
|
$ 3.80
| ||
12-Jun
|
R6#3
|
$ 4.80
| ||
22-Jun
|
R1#4
|
$ 3.20
| ||
R3#5
|
$ 3.20
| |||
26-Jun
|
R3 #4
|
$ 3.40
| ||
R6 #10
|
$ 7.20
| |||
3-Jul
|
R5 #5
|
$ 4.40
|
||
Picks
|
Win %
|
Ave Payoff
| ||
15 for 54
|
27.8%
|
$ 6.79
|
||
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