Canterbury Park for Thursday July 17th

Canterbury Park handicapping for Thursday July 17th 2014

 

RACE 3 $4 DAILY DOUBLE 4,5/8,11 ($16)

RACE 3 50 CENT PICK 4 PLAY – 2,4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6,8,11/1,2,3/6 ($36)

ANALYSIS

RACE 3

#4 MEGASTAR (TOP PICK) – Diodoro is wheeling this 8 year old back in 14 days off the decent 1 1/16^th mile effort where he started to back up late. He’ll face BOREALIS WAY again who’s also coming back in 14 days. I’m not a fan of the 14 day layoff for BOREALIS WAY off a career top effort and I’ll expect to see regression while Megastar is coming off a softer effort and is cutting back to his preferred 7.5F distance where he’s hit the board in 8 of 10 with 3 wins.  He’s been on a bit of an up and down pattern and should be up here but it’s worth noting that he generally gets more than two weeks between starts so maybe those 8 year old legs need a little more recovery time.

#2 BOREALIS WAY – Ran a beauty on the front end 14 days ago. Seemed the turf was a bit speed favoring that weekend and we’ll see if that continues to hold true. I expect a regression but hard to leave off the multi race wagers off that last effort and now he cuts back to 7.5 Furlongs.

#5 RUN IT – Another Diodoro 8 year old that beat the top choice back in May off the layoff at Turf Paradise. He’s regressed and had a non-effort since then and generally that means he’s ready to run back to one of his better ones. Stevens/Diodoro are still hitting at 33%. He’s been lightly raced the last 3 years, grade 3 winner years ago has good shot if he’s on his game.

#6 TRIBAL DREAM – A bit of a stretch but this is a Cal Bred with some turf pedigree who’s finding himself on the grass for the first time in 25 starts. He’s ran some OK races but most of those were at Fonner Park against inferior. The jock is a brick of ice and someone I rarely play (I apparently didn’t learn my lesson last week) because here I am again. I’ll give him a very outside shot if he takes to the grass as the longest shot on the board.  

RACE 4

#11 THANK YOU FOR ME (TOP PICK) – Maiden Claiming races on the turf are some of my favorite types of races to handicap and this one came up very interesting and wide open. I’ll try THANK YOU FOR ME on top. He was claimed from the Diodoro barn first out and goes to another top conditioner Robertson. He didn’t run terribly first out considering he was probably taking mud in the face and on paper his pedigree doesn’t seem to favor mud/slop.  The pedigree does suggests he’ll take to the grass and since he ran a legitimate speed figure when everything was working against maybe we’ll see a nice bump.

#1 GIANT HOOK – He was purchased in 2011 for 42K at Keenland by the Canterbury owners and hasn’t yet been able to hit the board. Obviously they thought highly of him at one time and after not hitting the board in 8 attempts they move to the turf which should be his preferred surface. He’ll have to do much more than he has but taking a chance that the surface is what’s been holding him back.

#3 GROWLER - With the scratch of BLUE STAR CAT I'll replace him with the Ulwellings GROWLER. Off since last July so likely needs a race or two. Showed enough talent to handle these when debuting at Fair Grounds going 5.5F on the turf.

#4 FRIARCRACKER – He was going well early in his career debut and then folded up halfway through. Caught a sloppy track last out and ran a non effort. Trainer is 5 for 9 when putting the blinkers on and 5 for 10 when dropping from MSW to MCL.

#5 BLUE STAR CAT – He’s looking great on the work tab and didn’t run too terribly just over a month ago coming back off the long layoff. The Jock’s a bit cold and the trainer doesn’t sport any wins on the MSW to MCL drop.

#6 U S SCOUT – First time with the Rhone barn and they’ve been heating up the last couple weeks. 0 for 12 with 2 seconds but moves to the turf for the first time and the pedigree suggest he’ll relish the grass.

#8 TWELVE TRIBES – Ran well last time out at this level but on the dirt. He was near the early lead and got taken over late, major player if the speed continues to hold up on the turf.

#14 (AE) JACKSON STATION – If he draws in this guy has been going OK in Des Moines. They ship him off 12 days rest to give the grass a try. Must play if he’s in.

RACE 5 $1 PICK 3 PLAY – 1,2,3,5/4,6/2,5,7 ($18)

RACE 5      

#1 GUARD THE ROCK (TOP PICK) – Diodoro runner beat his other runner, the likely favorite, MALIBU DEPUTY back in April. He regressed when off slow first time out at Canterbury and then ran a complete non effort 15 days ago. Type of pattern that suggests if his race back in April was legit he’ll be ready to run back to that one.

#2 FIDDLER BLUE (TOP PICK) – Going 2^nd off the layoff and turf to dirt for a trainer that hits nearly 20% with that move. Ran a career top just 20 days ago and I’ll give him an outside shot to improve off of that.

#3 KENALANTIC – Canchari/Roberson hitting at 30% together. This guy is likely to improve 2^nd off the one year layoff.

#5 MALIBU DEPUTY – With the scratch of GUARD THE ROCK I'll add MALIBU DEPUTY for Diodoro with Eikleberry up. I do think the good looking effort on Jun 28th on the slop is a bit inflated. Likely regression but if he validates that last one he'll be tough.  
 

RACE 6

#6 LISTEN YOU FOOL (TOP PICK) – Hasn’t won in a while but looks to be in against a crew that he should handle. REDNECK RICHIE is about the only speed signed on so he’ll need to stay in touch to avoid not being able to get there in time if the pace comes up pedestrian. Eikleberry is riding well. Toss out the turf try 3 back and his last 3 on the dirt are probably good enough to win here.

RACE 7

#2 BAD RIVER BELLE (TOP PICK) – Has the class edge having run in two local stakes as a maiden. Maybe she was just too far out of it for 60K last out and if she can now improve off the June 15^th effort which was against these types she should be a big threat. Goodwin off and Butler on is a plus.