Canterbury Park handicapping
for Thursday July 17th 2014
RACE
3 $4 DAILY DOUBLE 4,5/8,11 ($16)
RACE
3 50 CENT PICK 4 PLAY – 2,4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6,8,11/1,2,3/6 ($36)
ANALYSIS
RACE 3
#4 MEGASTAR (TOP PICK) – Diodoro is
wheeling this 8 year old back in 14 days off the decent 1 1/16th
mile effort where he started to back up late. He’ll face BOREALIS WAY again who’s
also coming back in 14 days. I’m not a fan of the 14 day layoff for BOREALIS
WAY off a career top effort and I’ll expect to see regression while Megastar is
coming off a softer effort and is cutting back to his preferred 7.5F distance
where he’s hit the board in 8 of 10 with 3 wins. He’s been on a bit of an up and down pattern and
should be up here but it’s worth noting that he generally gets more than two
weeks between starts so maybe those 8 year old legs need a little more recovery
time.
#2 BOREALIS WAY – Ran a beauty
on the front end 14 days ago. Seemed the turf was a bit speed favoring that
weekend and we’ll see if that continues to hold true. I expect a regression but
hard to leave off the multi race wagers off that last effort and now he cuts
back to 7.5 Furlongs.
#5 RUN IT – Another
Diodoro 8 year old that beat the top choice back in May off the layoff at Turf
Paradise. He’s regressed and had a non-effort since then and generally that
means he’s ready to run back to one of his better ones. Stevens/Diodoro are
still hitting at 33%. He’s been lightly raced the last 3 years, grade 3 winner
years ago has good shot if he’s on his game.
#6 TRIBAL DREAM – A bit of a
stretch but this is a Cal Bred with some turf pedigree who’s finding himself on
the grass for the first time in 25 starts. He’s ran some OK races but most of
those were at Fonner Park against inferior. The jock is a brick of ice and
someone I rarely play (I apparently didn’t learn my lesson last week) because
here I am again. I’ll give him a very outside shot if he takes to the grass as
the longest shot on the board.
RACE
4
#11 THANK YOU FOR ME (TOP
PICK) – Maiden
Claiming races on the turf are some of my favorite types of races to handicap
and this one came up very interesting and wide open. I’ll try THANK YOU FOR ME
on top. He was claimed from the Diodoro barn first out and goes to another top
conditioner Robertson. He didn’t run terribly first out considering he was
probably taking mud in the face and on paper his pedigree doesn’t seem to favor
mud/slop. The pedigree does suggests
he’ll take to the grass and since he ran a legitimate speed figure when
everything was working against maybe we’ll see a nice bump.
#1 GIANT HOOK – He was
purchased in 2011 for 42K at Keenland by the Canterbury owners and hasn’t yet
been able to hit the board. Obviously they thought highly of him at one time
and after not hitting the board in 8 attempts they move to the turf which
should be his preferred surface. He’ll have to do much more than he has but
taking a chance that the surface is what’s been holding him back.
#3 GROWLER - With the scratch of BLUE STAR CAT I'll replace him with the Ulwellings GROWLER. Off since last July so likely needs a race or two. Showed enough talent to handle these when debuting at Fair Grounds going 5.5F on the turf.
#4 FRIARCRACKER – He was going
well early in his career debut and then folded up halfway through. Caught a
sloppy track last out and ran a non effort. Trainer is 5 for 9 when putting the
blinkers on and 5 for 10 when dropping from MSW to MCL.
#6 U S SCOUT – First time
with the Rhone barn and they’ve been heating up the last couple weeks. 0 for 12
with 2 seconds but moves to the turf for the first time and the pedigree
suggest he’ll relish the grass.
#8 TWELVE TRIBES – Ran well
last time out at this level but on the dirt. He was near the early lead and got
taken over late, major player if the speed continues to hold up on the turf.
RACE
5 $1 PICK 3 PLAY – 1,2,3,5/4,6/2,5,7 ($18)
RACE 5
#2 FIDDLER BLUE (TOP PICK) – Going 2nd
off the layoff and turf to dirt for a trainer that hits nearly 20% with that
move. Ran a career top just 20 days ago and I’ll give him an outside shot to
improve off of that.
#3 KENALANTIC – Canchari/Roberson
hitting at 30% together. This guy is likely to improve 2nd off the
one year layoff.
#5 MALIBU DEPUTY – With the scratch of GUARD THE ROCK I'll add MALIBU DEPUTY for Diodoro with Eikleberry up. I do think the good looking effort on Jun 28th on the slop is a bit inflated. Likely regression but if he validates that last one he'll be tough.
#5 MALIBU DEPUTY – With the scratch of GUARD THE ROCK I'll add MALIBU DEPUTY for Diodoro with Eikleberry up. I do think the good looking effort on Jun 28th on the slop is a bit inflated. Likely regression but if he validates that last one he'll be tough.
RACE 6
#6 LISTEN YOU FOOL (TOP
PICK) – Hasn’t
won in a while but looks to be in against a crew that he should handle. REDNECK
RICHIE is about the only speed signed on so he’ll need to stay in touch to avoid
not being able to get there in time if the pace comes up pedestrian. Eikleberry
is riding well. Toss out the turf try 3 back and his last 3 on the dirt are
probably good enough to win here.
RACE 7
#2 BAD RIVER BELLE (TOP
PICK) – Has
the class edge having run in two local stakes as a maiden. Maybe she was just
too far out of it for 60K last out and if she can now improve off the June 15th
effort which was against these types she should be a big threat. Goodwin off
and Butler on is a plus.
