Opening Day at Old Del Mar

Opening day at Del Mar is always a sign that the Minnesota summer is closer to the end than the beginning. It's always an openning day I look forward too but maybe more so this year after not hearing, what to me, is the voice of the west coast thoroughbred racing Trevor Denman call races at Santa Anita's all winter and spring. I'm a fan of Michael Wrona but the winter and spring meets at "the great race place" were not the same without Denman. When he leaves the game entirely it's a voice, a brand, a style that will absolutely never be replicated.

A few thoughts on the annual opening day stake, The Oceanside, and how I'll play the late pick 4. Good Luck.

OCEANSIDE STAKES 

#1 DIPLODOCUS

Would have to improve significantly off the two Jan turf tries. Baltas can fire off the short layoffs but he appears to be in too deep for my liking.

#2 MOONLIGHT DRIVE

Off since North America debut back in February. Bejarano gave him a perfect trip that day at Santa Anita and he drew off without Bejarano asking a lot. Should be drawn well to sit just off the pace once again. Baffort has a pair of 6F works in him and we all down he can get his horses to fire fresh.

#3 IMPERIOUS ONE

Ran a nice one walking on the lead Jan 24th and has been off since. Should be near the lead but not sure the Del Mar sod will be as forgiving as what Santa Anita was this past winter and spring for front runners. Both Praf and Bejarano ride elsewhere; I'll have to pass. 

#4 PATH OF DAVID

Took 5 tries to break maiden but is 4 for 4 hitting the board on the turf at 1 mile. Like others in here has to contend with the long layoff and will need to run a career best off the bench to contend. 

#5 MISHEGAS

Didn't do any running in the Rainbow. Speed favoring course but had absolutely no run at any point of the race that was run at a relatively swift pace. Maybe he just needed a race but Sherman doesn't win at a good % 2nd off the layoff. I think he's in too deep. 

#6 TRISTAN'S TRILOGY 

Maybe the race May 14th took some punch out of him as he came back a few weeks later and flopped. He's improved but Arroyo gets the call for Peter Miller and that to me doesn't seem like a vote of confidence. 

#7 EBADAN

Has ran a couple respectable races since coming to the US and Drysdale. He came from way back down the hill at SA to win and then lacked punch while sitting closer last out. Could be the type that improves on a course that isn't so speed favoring. Hate to see Praf jump ship but will be in capable hands of up an coming Gonzalez. 

#8 ARCATURE

Thought Praf gave this horse an absolute dream trip in the Rainbow and Arcature was done at the top of the lane. Maybe the cut back to 1 mile helps but there was just not excuse for how poorly he ran last out and doubtful he gets another dream trip. 

#9 DRESSED IN HERMES

I've been a big fan of this horse and really thought he was primed for a solid effort in his last at Belmont. To this point he hasn't shown any improvement from 2YO to 3YO. 3rd race of the form cycle and rejoins with Mike Smith. Maybe he wakes up and shows some improvement here. 

#10 HOLLYWOOD DON

Has worked a few bullets for Miller coming off the 5 month layoff. Could be a horse that has grown up over the last 6 months but I'd have to see him run faster as his career best doesn't come close to being able to get it done here. 

#11 BLACKJACKCAT 

#12 MONSTER BEA

Of the Miller trio the one I want to try. Stalking type that could be compromised by post. If Stevens can avoid the wide trip should be a major player coming from the 2nd flight.

#13 MR ROARY

Speedster has one way to go from an outside post and has one of the best gate jocks anywhere. Wired the field at 38-1 setting honest fractons on the speed favoring SA turf course. The cutback shouldn't hurt but I'll make him prove it on a surface that should be a little more tiring.

#14 LIAM THE CHARMER

Tough post and will need to avoid ground loss. Closed decently into the hot pace set by Mr Roary last out. Hasn't done much wrong as a 3YO but I'll hope he just can't overcome what figures to be a less than ideal trip. 

Plays: 

Race 8:
 Win Bet
#7 Ebadan

Race 7:
50 cent Pick 4
1,3,4,6,7 / 2,7,9,12 / 5,6,7,8,10 / 6,8 

Thursday Night Racing Returns to Canterbury Park

Dave Handeland’s (@SuperStatsDave) preview of the first “Buck Night” of 2016 at Canterbury Park.  Shakopee has taken heavy rain overnight creating a possibility that races 3, 4, and 5 come OFF the turf. Enjoy Dave’s write up and cash some tickets. 

Good Luck!

 

 

 

It’s hard to believe that we are already in the 4^th week of racing of the year at Canterbury Park. Time flies when you are having fun.  Some people have The Belmont Stakes as the best horse racing event of the week but I’ll do them one better by saying that the 1^st Thursday BUCK NIGHT at Canterbury is the place to be.

 

This BUCK NIGHT card looks pretty wide open and I had trouble narrowing my Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s down as result.  The early Pick 4 with a pair of turf sprints along with some 2 year-old state bred fillies could put some nice sums of money in the pockets of the public. 

 

Race 1:   In this quarter horse race, my top pick is #2 Fast Eddys Eyeyinyou who fired fresh off the layoff in his last race and took home the win. The Pinon/Johnson combo won on Saturday at 13/2 odds and why not again with Fast Eddy is eying another win. My 2^nd selection is #5 Ms McDreamy out of the Jason Olmstead barn. This filly is also coming off of a win and if she can avoid the gate trouble she’s seen in previous starts, a win isn’t out of the question.  My 3^rd selection is #3 PYC Powerwagon who hasn’t been seen since June 2015. Any child of PYC Paint Your Wagon gets a 2^nd look by me as PYC seems to sire some fast running QH’s.

 

Race 2: The 2^nd and final quarter horse race is for maidens and has me landing on #2 Kiss Me I’m Country.  Kiss Me has raced vs similar but shows a pretty nifty workout on June 2^nd that shows that Vic Hanson might have this one geared up. #3 Shesa Shazoom is trained by Edward Ross Hardy who has 3 wins out of his 6 starters early in the meet.  That is good enough for me. I might add #4 This Doll Ca Run & #5 Sprinkled Ivory into my bets as well.

 

Race 3: The Early Pick 4 begins with 10 MN-Bred maidens sprinting Five furlongs on the turf. With some of the best CBY jockeys sitting this race out adds even one more layer of intrigue into this race.  My timid top selection is #7 Orfan Ole is 0/19 and is piloted by relative unknown Samuel Jimenez. OO is fairly competitive and maybe this shift to turf while turning back is what does the trick. My 2^nd choice is #2 Xans Storm who is a 1^st time starter from Vic Hanson.   Jenna Joubert gets the ride and she seems to get them out of the gate quickly which is a key factor in turf sprints.  Beyond this pair, I’ll be using #3 Johnny the Jet, #4 Nick’s Silver Top and #8 Bear Down on my ticket. I’m not crazy about the ML favorite #10 Holy Brass and will play against him.

 

Race 4: There are 11 entered in this wide open turf race for claimers.  I’m pretty torn about my top selections but I’ll side with #8 Shock the Clock who is ridden by Giovanni Franco (who is maybe my favorite turf rider at C-Bury). After being competitive down in AZ, this gelding didn’t show a lot a couple weeks ago but that was a tough field. I think this is a much better spot and that Franco can shock some bettors. #7 Gray Satellite is a Tampa invader and those types have had a strong start to the meet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Denny V send this one from the start and try to hold on. Along with this pair, I’ll be using #1 Bellamy Boy & #4 Hyper Drive on my tickets.

 

Race 5: We see another turf sprint for Optional Claimers competing for a 34K purse. My top pick and the only possible single in the early P4 sequence is #1 DRC’s Pretty Sky. In 5 starts in 2016, DRC has hit the board in each and won 108K including a 65K Stakes win at Prairie Meadows.  This will be her 1^st start on turf but if she takes to it, this could be an easy win.  No way we get 4-1. #5 Luvin Bullies is one of two Mac Robertson runners in the race but this one gets Dean Butler.  A pair of bullet workouts leading up to this make me think she will be ready to go.  #2 Rockin the Bleu’s was a game runner-up on opening weekend in the Lady Slipper Stakes and has a shot.  (if the race comes off the turf and #9 Magnificent Margo gets in, she becomes my top pick)

 

Race 6: A six-pack of 2 year-old fillies debuting at 3.5 furlongs.  LOOK OUT!!! No strong feelings here and I couldn’t fault a person for using ALL in their P3’s & P4’s. #4 RJ’s Silver Syd is my top pick. Without much to go on, I like the gate workout on May 30^th which is a good sign in a quick race like this.  #1 Dancing With Eve gets Alex Canchari which is enough for me. #3 Miss Brookside is owned along with bred by the Ulwelling’s. Not the greatest works but the Franco/Biehler combo has 4 wins in 8 starts early in the season. If you are alive to this race in the early Pick 4, it wouldn’t be the end of the world to start the late Pick 4 by using “All”.

 

Race 7: #5 Peonari is my top selection in this cone mile claiming race.  Alex Canchari should be gunning from the start and if Peonari runs like he has in his previous two races, this should be another win. #7 Sunday Prohibition was very competitive on opening weekend when returning from nearly a 7-month layoff. Hugo Sanchez is riding much better this year and will be trying to pounce if my top pick fails. #4 Bellamy Run has faced decent competition and might be sneaky here although he appears to be better on the turf.

 

Race 8: My timid top choice is #1 Maddymax who went to the front in her last race but couldn’t hold on.  I think this spot is a little better and maybe Martin Escobar can try to control the pace again and wire the field.  #6 Always a Chance is trained by Robertino Diodoro who enters horses to win races.  This one is dropping down in class after running versus better in AZ but has been off for four months and has a pair of poor works leading into this.  #5 My Place Or Yours stalked Maddymax last time out and continued on when Maddymax stopped. A consistent type, I just don’t know if she wants to win.

 

Race 9: The final race of BUCK NIGHT sees a possible single in the late Pick 4 as #2 Diablo Caballero is going to be the heavy favorite.  After running out in CA, this one took a mysterious drop to $6250 last time out but came in 2nd to fellow class dropper Doodle Hopper.  This time it looks like a one horse race. Behind Diablo, I see #6 Knightinmoderation & #4 Kitazi as the ones filling out the trifecta.

 

Bets:

Early Pick 4:  23478/1478/125/134  $90  if you want pay less, use only #1 in the 3^rd leg/race 5.

Late Pick 4: ALL/ 257/ALL/2  $54   In the 3^rd leg/race 8 you could use only 156

Race 6: 50 cent trifecta    4/All/All for $10 and All/4/All for $10.